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Exglint

Mananode's Gifts and what's the chance to get that weapon?

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Posted (edited)

These new and returning weapons are great.....until they aren't great. I've been looking over this as best I can and thinking about it a lot and I kind of half did the math over it. I wanted to detail it out and see if I'm crazy or if something doesn't seem right.

To start, Chromatic said there are over 30 weapons. Juice collected all of them and showed that there were 32 weapons so I'm going to calculate using that number. Within that number there are 3 shields (no attack types or changing secondary stat) and 2 tomes (no attack types but does have changing secondary stats). The rest are weapons with multiple attack types/speeds and changing secondary stats (Ability Power and Hero Health). Of those, Swords only have 3 attack speeds and then a speed bonus. The special weapons Toxic Shock, Phantom Phoenix, and Chilling Touch only have 1 attack type but at 3 speeds. The Dark Ritual Dagger for Mystic has 3 speeds with 3 weights. The Monk weapons have both 3 weights and Single, Triple, Quintuple shot types at 3 speeds. The rest have Single, Triple, Quintuple, Burst, and Scatter Shot and all have 3 speeds. Those listed from Swords down have 2 secondary stats.

Now, anyone who knows me from my Stream or Discord knows that a vomit of math is about to caress your eyes, so be prepared. This math will find total possibility of drops then reverts possibility to percentage chances of getting a singular specific drop from the possibility.

3 Shields, 2 Tomes with 2 Secondary stats,  8 Swords with 3 weights and 2 secondary stats, 3 special weapons with 3 speeds and 2 secondary stats, the Dark Ritual Dagger with 3 weights 3 speeds and 2 secondary stats which is 17 of the 32 drops. I know of 5 Monk weapons bringing the total to 22, which leaves the rest as the last weapon listed above (Huntress/Monk) as 10 weapons. This gets written out as:

Shields + Tomes + Specials + Dark Ritual Dag+ Swords + Glaives + Ranged Weapons

  • 3 + (2 x 2) + (3 x 3 x 2) + (1 x 3 x 3 x 2) + (8 x 3 x 2) + (5 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 2) + (10 x 5 x 3 x 2) = 661 possibilities with 32 weapons

That is a lot of possibilities when opening a gift. We do know you didn't care for just the number of possibilities you want the chances of getting that single individual super awesome weapon you are dying to have from the total number of possibilities. That one god weapon. For that you just take 1 and divide by the number of possibilities.

  • 1 / 661 = 0.15% chance to get the exact one you want out of 32 weapons, with all the things you want on it (not counting stat rolls and bonus speed)

Now before you go and burn down the forums, do keep in mind this does not take into consideration the roll value of your secondary stat that is permanent and cannot be changed and the bonus attack speed on swords that goes up to 20% and also cannot be changed. The biggest consideration is how often you get gifts, which is RNG from Victory Chests after you get all the guaranteed ones on the specific floors. I won't be taking into consideration the guaranteed ones because I and many others will not be resetting again (as we have finished that) so those are a one time deal for us.

After looking at these numbers in my head, on paper and while writing this I have come to one conclusion. This is absolutely unacceptable.

My suggestions on this are not pick one and go with that, its pick ALL of them and go with it.

  • First, give us some way to reroll secondary stat....uh....stat, soon, next patch, asap.
  • Second, remove the attack types no one wants, like Medium, Single and Triple. Do a survey or something to get an idea or however you want but the undesired attack types should not drop from these.
  • Thirdly, Remove ALL locked mods. They are not fun and ruin weapons that we have other plans for.

These would significantly reduce the chances of getting screwed by RNG over what is most often a weapon skin and has nothing special about it otherwise. Grindy game is grindy, I get it, but this is way WAY too much. 

tl;dr The chance to get the weapon you want is really low, if you wanna know more at least skim the post dude or dudette :)

 

  • Edit 1: Juice gave an image of all the weapons for an accurate calculation
  • Edit 2: Added a suggestion for fixing the weapons and making it all better
  • Edit 3: Don't math tired forgot to move the decimal
Edited by Exglint
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6 hours ago, oxbowdvcorlone said:

Would be kinda cool if tokens could reroll secondaries or shot types/speeds.

Yeah, would be cool indeed. I think talismans would be better suited though. Personally, just being able to reroll primary stat for perfect stats isn't really getting me. But also being able to reroll secondaries and shot types/speeds? That mat might just shine nicely. Currently, it's quite lackluster compared to tokens.

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Posted (edited)

I just did the probability on this. Assuming 1/661 you would have to loot about 2000 of these to have a 95% chance of finding the one you're looking for. (1978 to be exact)

And even after you've found one after grinding 2000 of these it may have a bad secondary stat.

I agree that's pretty extreme when you consider how much time it takes to loot each one.

Edited by oxbowdvcorlone
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Low possibility can be greatly reduced if some rolls are just not available. For example, some will only roll as specific or 2 out of multiple shot types, same go for weights. 

This one I'm not sure, so ignore it if I said it wrong. I thought we could farm tier-specific gifts? no? 

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1 hour ago, hailminion said:

Low possibility can be greatly reduced if some rolls are just not available. For example, some will only roll as specific or 2 out of multiple shot types, same go for weights. 

This one I'm not sure, so ignore it if I said it wrong. I thought we could farm tier-specific gifts? no? 

If they removed only Medium weight, Single and Triple shot types the total possibilities drop to 1/309 = 0.32%

If they removed Medium weight, Single and Triple shot types and the 2/s speeds the total possibilities drop to 1/219 = 0.45%

Which even when considering I messed up the decimal still isn't that much of an improvement from 0.15% but still doubles or triples the chances of getting closer to what you are looking for.

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1/219 is 654 for 95%... (or 503 for 90% chance)

So this begs the question... how many should it take... or rather maybe how long would be acceptable to find a weapon?

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1 minute ago, oxbowdvcorlone said:

So this begs the question... how many should it take... or rather maybe how long would be acceptable to find a weapon?

Agreed, I know I played during the 3 maps per floor phase of Onslaught but honestly how many maps have I possibly done in Onslaught since the beginning and completed, divided by RNG drop chance of about one gift per 3-4 maps on average? 

Even just taking into consideration your numbers times 15 mins per map is around 125 hours for one weapon you can use effectively. (thats with bad stuff taken out)

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, hailminion said:

This one I'm not sure, so ignore it if I said it wrong. I thought we could farm tier-specific gifts? no? 

We could farm in specific tier indeed, but there is a problem that also bypass that factor - The higher tier of gift does award weapons from previous tier. Like I got the Featherweight shield from the Special Tier while it's from the Amazing Tier. Or I got The Dictionary tome from the Amazing Tier while it's from the first tier.

Which can be a bit disappointing considering I expect to get a weapon specifically from that particular tier instead of previous ones.

Edited by Paloverde zfogshooterz
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