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Chaos Theory

Reroll MOD Probability Question

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So, a MOD can be level 1-10 and you can reroll those with the right materials. Got it.  

I was thinking that rerolling would be equivalent to rolling a 10-sided dice, just as good a chance to roll a 1 as a 10. WRONG. VERY WRONG.

Wondering if there is an additional probability factor going on?  Are there certain levels where it does not make sense to reroll? If you have a 9, seems like chances to roll a 10 are astronomical.

 

 

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It never not makes sense to reroll technically. Trendy put a protection in the mod reroll system where, if you roll a mod 285 times and do not get a 10/10 then your 286th roll is 100% to get you a 10/10. You are correct though, this is not like rolling a 10 sided die, mainly because that would make no sense in a heavy RNG game. After doing 2000 rerolls in one sitting I can tell you the chance to roll a natural 10 without the protection is incredibly low, like lower than 1% low....lower than 0.5% low.....lower than 0.05% low. Its a very very low chance to get a natural 10. I would bet that if you do get a natural 10 before 286 then you can basically kiss your RNG goodbye for the next month, because you just won the lottery.

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11 hours ago, Exglint said:

I would bet that if you do get a natural 10 before 286 then you can basically kiss your RNG goodbye for the next month, because you just won the lottery.

I won the lottery twice ;).. rolled a 10 on Shocking Rev and about 7 rerolls later i got a 10 water ;)

But yeah rerolling and hoping to get a 10.. not gonna happen.. ive been wondering tho if its not just rerolls but actual mod drops as well thats counted.. i know there is ment to be some 10 hour pity timer as well.. but if its counting dropped mods as part of it it would explain why i managed to get the 2 10's that easily... probably not at a rate of 1:1 tho ;)

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32 minutes ago, LJMjollnir said:

I won the lottery twice ;).. rolled a 10 on Shocking Rev and about 7 rerolls later i got a 10 water ;)

And remind me how many gilded rates do you have :P

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0 8(.. have several of each gilded Destros and Ranges tho... only 2 away from a rate.. but i dont actively farm C4... thats what im going with..... if only there was some reason to play C4 other then Rate... plenty of reasons to play C1/C3 tho... always out of those darn Motes... grumble grumble...

 

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5 hours ago, LJMjollnir said:

I won the lottery twice ;).. rolled a 10 on Shocking Rev and about 7 rerolls later i got a 10 water ;)

But yeah rerolling and hoping to get a 10.. not gonna happen.. ive been wondering tho if its not just rerolls but actual mod drops as well thats counted.. i know there is ment to be some 10 hour pity timer as well.. but if its counting dropped mods as part of it it would explain why i managed to get the 2 10's that easily... probably not at a rate of 1:1 tho ;)

I been wondering if there is more to do with the pity timer as I have not seen a 10 drop all week dispite putting in more than 10 hours but in that time frame I have purchased 3 10/10 MODS so maybe Trendy just see new 10s in your inventory and that resets the pity timers perhaps 

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6 hours ago, Defenso said:

I been wondering if there is more to do with the pity timer as I have not seen a 10 drop all week dispite putting in more than 10 hours but in that time frame I have purchased 3 10/10 MODS so maybe Trendy just see new 10s in your inventory and that resets the pity timers perhaps 

I can almost 100% promise you that you haven't hit the threshhold yet.  It's not 10 hours playing. It's 10 hours actively playing. That means killing enemies constantly and winning the majority of the time. This can get skewed by load times, being in tavern/town, etc.

That said, it's not affected by acquiring 10/10 through buying or rerolling.

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Good to know that the pity timer is independent of buying and rerolling... don't want to have some timer running on my phone or something tracking my play time, so your be in town and that guy will be there selling a 10 tenacity mod and I'd have to be like "dude wait 1.5 hours gotta get mah pity 10 First, before I buy that "

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4 minutes ago, Defenso said:

Good to know that the pity timer is independent of buying and rerolling... don't want to have some timer running on my phone or something tracking my play time, so your be in town and that guy will be there selling a 10 tenacity mod and I'd have to be like "dude wait 1.5 hours gotta get mah pity 10 First, before I buy that "

Timing it is the best way to measure it, but not the most accurate, because if you play with others, especially in a group of four, you DRASTICALLY reduce the time to see one.

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I play a lot of couch co-op and quite often on private as I'm going through onslaught atm . 

Does that count as multiplayer for the reduction in the timer?

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Its not a multiplayer timer reduction, its about the amount of extra drops you are getting. The more drops you get in a shorter amount of time the more likely it is to have a 10 among them. Playing in parties means you are getting bonus legendary gear from the victory chest, each with two mods, where playing alone you may not get any legendary gear or even gear that can have mods from the victory chest.

The "10 hour" thing is more of a guideline just to give us an idea about how long it should take to see a 10/10 drop, not a concrete measurement.

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