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BABurrito69

Shard drop rates for every chaos Tier

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So there have been a lot of questions about shard drop rates, so id figure id compile all the drop rates for a given chaos tier right in one post for easy viewing. The 2 sources i used are: 

https://wiki.dungeondefenders2.com/wiki/Shards (all the shards in game)

https://dropchance.guru/ (a drop rate calculator i use all the time for warframe)


Campaign has 16 shards in it, so a 6.2% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 36  shards. For a 99% chance, you need 72.


C1 has 24 shards in it, so a 4.1% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 55 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 110.


C2 has 26 shards in it, so a 3.8% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 59 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 119.


C3 has 29 shards in it, so a 3.4% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 67 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 133.


C4 has 34 shards in it, so a 2.9% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 78 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 156.


C5 has 39 shards in it, so a 2.5% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 91 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 182.


C6 has 24 shards in it, so a 4.1% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 55 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 100.


C7 has 27 shards in it, so a 3.7% chance to drop any specific shard. So to get a 90% chance to get a specific shard you need to get 61 shards. For a 99% chance, you need 122.


So in order of best odds to worst odds : Campaign, c6, c1, c2, c7, c3, c4, and c5. So, to my suprise, c5 is the worst to get shards from. Now these numbers are not maps completed, its number of shards you get. After 4 maps you get 2 shards per map, and the shard packs have 5 shards in them. 

Also despite the percentages campaign shards and c7 shards are the simplest to get because when you live in c7 or onslaught you are guaranteed a campaign and c7 shard for both activities. 

One last thing, Please check my work if you want to, i'm only human and if anything here is wrong ill change it to reflect that.



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Are you sure all shards on a particular chaos tier have an equal chance to drop?  I've been farming chaos 3 shards but have yet to receive a single Deadly Strikes.  Lava Floor is also missing, but besides those two I think I've found all of the C3 shards.  Some others are plentiful; I've received at least five copies of Abyss Knight's Bargain, Jackpot, Betsy's Zapper, Echoing Shout and some others.

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@tdb quote:

Are you sure all shards on a particular chaos tier have an equal chance to drop?  I've been farming chaos 3 shards but have yet to receive a single Deadly Strikes.  Lava Floor is also missing, but besides those two I think I've found all of the C3 shards.  Some others are plentiful; I've received at least five copies of Abyss Knight's Bargain, Jackpot, Betsy's Zapper, Echoing Shout and some others.

yes all have the same drop rate, and this has been confirmed sooooo many times.

Opening one pack has no impact on another. RNG is cruel mistress when you are looking at a low pool of anything for patterns.



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Packs being independent does not preclude some shards being more common than others.  Have any players reported getting a surplus of Deadly Strikes?  It's not only that I'm missing certain shards, it's always the same shards that are overrepresented.  If the droprates were uniform I'd expect to sometimes see more of one shard and sometimes another.  I don't know how many C3 packs I've opened exactly, but probably over 100; the odds of opening that many packs and two shards being completely absent are less than 0.1%.

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Honestly, there should just be some way to obtain a specific shard in a finite amount of time.  Apparently the damn things can't even be traded.  Make them purchasable with 100 shard dust or something.

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@tdb quote:

Have any players reported getting a surplus of Deadly Strikes? 

A little over 50 deadly strikes.  Probably only opened around 20 packs when I first started.  Just a bunch of farming.  

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Defense Rate and Deadly Strikes have proven to be rare enough that I grind Chaos III and IV every time I reset.
Run 100 Chaos IV and find no Defense Rate...only to find 2 in a row.  Definitely FEELS like there's less than equal chance at times.  But, I've played enough games over the last 40 years to know that RNGESUS can be fickle.

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@tdb quote:

Are you sure all shards on a particular chaos tier have an equal chance to drop?  I've been farming chaos 3 shards but have yet to receive a single Deadly Strikes.  Lava Floor is also missing, but besides those two I think I've found all of the C3 shards.  Some others are plentiful; I've received at least five copies of Abyss Knight's Bargain, Jackpot, Betsy's Zapper, Echoing Shout and some others.

how big of a pool of shards are you looking at? Ive gilded 6 deadly strikes so they do drop. its probable that you have not opened anywhere near enough shards to see an even distrubution and weigh out the extemes.

So as an example OP said 29 shard drops so I tossed 100 rolls of a 29 side dice 

http://rolladie.net/rolladie#!numbers=1&sides=29&length=100&last_roll_only=false&totals_only=false&start=false

and did not get anywhere close to a even distrubtion with several numbers occuring 0 or 1 time

So I did it again with 1000 rolls and you still see extremes with some occuring less then 20 times and others 40-50 times

Rolled it again 10000 times and you see a much closer to even distribution (330-350 avg)

RNG systems suck for the outliers, you are going through that right now. Perhaps they can do something with shard dust to help with the outliers like they did with mod rerolls.



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@Nigiri_Toro quote:

how big of a pool of shards are you looking at? Ive gilded 6 deadly strikes so they do drop. its probable that you have not opened anywhere near enough shards to see an even distrubution and weigh out the extemes.

So as an example OP said 29 shard drops so I tossed 100 rolls of a 29 side dice 

http://rolladie.net/rolladie#!numbers=1&sides=29&length=100&last_roll_only=false&totals_only=false&start=false

and did not get anywhere close to a even distrubtion with several numbers occuring 0 or 1 time

So I did it again with 1000 rolls and you still see extremes with some occuring less then 20 times and others 40-50 times

Rolled it again 10000 times and you see a much closer to even distribution (330-350 avg)

RNG systems suck for the outliers, you are going through that right now. Perhaps they can do something with shard dust to help with the outliers like they did with mod rerolls.

I was seeing something very similar to this when I was testing as well. The more outcomes you did at once the more even things became but doing 1 or 5 at a time to equal the same outcomes the numbers were far less even. On top of being far less even, they also tended to break these rules of probability that are proposed in the OP more often than not. Considering we can only ever get 1 or 5 shards at a time and each opening does not influence the next I would say that these rules of probability are more for players state of mind than actual truth.

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Just an FYI there are 35 shards possible in c4 not 34. The wiki has 2 more in c4 at the bottom of the shards page.  Someone needs to edit the fairly brand new wiki. So that all shards appear in thier proper chaos tiers section.

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