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Chinese Grow

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@Zaurux quote:


@PHPH quote:

It's not even remotely obvious. 

To use a defense rate shard as an example, you have a one in 33 chance of getting a shard. If every shard has the same chance of dropping, then you have an around 3.03% chance of getting a defense rate shard, or any other shard. 

According to this handy dandy online drop chance calculator (https://dropchance.guru/?percent=3), it'd statistically take ~151 attempts to approach a 99% chance to get something with a 3% chance to drop, or ~76 attempts to approach a 90% chance.

Rng doesn’t work like this though, the % chance to get said shard would always remain at 3.03% each time. Completing more games doesn’t cause the % chance to raise whatsoever, what it does do is give you more  chances for that 3.03% rarity however. That calculator will never give you an accurate estimate of when the shard will drop, because it can’t really correctly predict that.

What? That calculator isn't meant to give you an "accurate estimate of when the shard will drop". It's just expressing the mathematical probability of rolling a particular number out of a range of 1 and 33. I'm not saying your chance of getting a given outcome goes up with each attempt, or that you're guaranteed to get a shard by your 150th attempt. That's not even remotely what that represents...

Literally all I did was replace 1-(32/33)^n=99/100, where n is the number of attempts, with an automatic tool I found online because I couldn't find a calculator.

The point I was trying to make is that since you need to open ~150 c4 shards to have a 99% theoretical probability of getting one defense rate, it's extremely doubtful OP has gone through a sample size large enough to show it's "obvious" that certain shards have lower drop chances than others.

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@PHPH quote:


@Zaurux quote:


@PHPH quote:

It's not even remotely obvious. 

To use a defense rate shard as an example, you have a one in 33 chance of getting a shard. If every shard has the same chance of dropping, then you have an around 3.03% chance of getting a defense rate shard, or any other shard. 

According to this handy dandy online drop chance calculator (https://dropchance.guru/?percent=3), it'd statistically take ~151 attempts to approach a 99% chance to get something with a 3% chance to drop, or ~76 attempts to approach a 90% chance.

Rng doesn’t work like this though, the % chance to get said shard would always remain at 3.03% each time. Completing more games doesn’t cause the % chance to raise whatsoever, what it does do is give you more  chances for that 3.03% rarity however. That calculator will never give you an accurate estimate of when the shard will drop, because it can’t really correctly predict that.

What? That calculator isn't meant to give you an "accurate estimate of when the shard will drop". It's just expressing the mathematical probability of rolling a particular number out of a range of 1 and 33. I'm not saying your chance of getting a given outcome goes up with each attempt, or that you're guaranteed to get a shard by your 150th attempt. That's not even remotely what that represents...

Literally all I did was replace 1-(32/33)^n=99/100, where n is the number of attempts, with an automatic tool I found online because I couldn't find a calculator.

The point I was trying to make is that since you need to open ~150 c4 shards to have a 99% theoretical probability of getting one defense rate, it's extremely doubtful OP has gone through a sample size large enough to show it's "obvious" that certain shards have lower drop chances than others.

Ah right I see :P


Yeah, op probably hasn’t opened enough packs

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