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Relics MODs drops

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Completed floor 169, so far only 4 relics 10/10.

20 chaos runs for one poor green relic.

only a drop mythical chest (floor 118) and ancient egg (floor 166).

I recently installed a vpn because I have connection problems (only DD2) and only then did I get the 4 greens and 1 mythical chest, climbing 6 floors.

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its all just rng. I am currently sorting out my green mods that I had stored on my second account from the last 30 AP i did. ended up with 5 pages of green mods.

Chests and eggs likewise are also all rng.  I have a majority of the costumes and cosmetics and its all from random chests that dropped. Most of my good stuff (legendary cosmetics) came out of green chests.

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@Nigiri_Toro quote:

its all just rng. I am currently sorting out my green mods that I had stored on my second account from the last 30 AP i did. ended up with 5 pages of green mods.

Chests and eggs likewise are also all rng.  I have a majority of the costumes and cosmetics and its all from random chests that dropped. Most of my good stuff (legendary cosmetics) came out of green chests.

if it were rng I would get green mods not only mods of bad qualities. I already talked with several players and with one who played the same time I played yesterday, he got a 20 and I got 1 green (relics only)

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It is RNG. It's also about how much time you're putting into the game. Think about it like this: if I flipped a coin 1000 times and got 500 heads, but you flipped a coin only 100 times and got 25 heads, would you think your coin is biased? Similarly, if we both flipped a coin 100 times, and I got 75 heads, but you got 25 heads, would you think your coin is biased? 

I know it's demoralising, but just play the game without worrying about MOD quality and, given enough time, you'll start seeing some high-quality stuff. :)

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If i flipped a coin and got heads 75 times in a row, i would know it was biased. Heck, even 10 or more times. While the proability of heads remains constant - the odds of sequential results goes down exponentially after each flip. And that is a binary system.

Now, take into account that for any shard pack you open, you have a 1-in-"however many shards exist at that tier and below" chance at any 1 shard. I have on MULTIPLE occasions opened up the same shard 2-3 times in a row. The astronomical odds of that even being possible, let alone how many times i have seen it - strongly suggest that an "all equal" distribution does not exist. With the sample size i have now seen in over 9 months of playing, it firmly backs this theory. By now, with a big enough sample, things should level off. But they haven't. I used to see destruction shards - until crit was nerfed, and magically they seem to never drop now. Coincidence...im sure...

So to me, just blaming things on RNG is just giving up. In a true RNG environment, the above i mentioned should almost never occur. And yet night after night i see the same shards open up in packs - monk chi stomp anyone, and i have not seen a single destruction, DS, or DR shard in months. I'm not buying the RNG tale...

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75 heads total, not in a row. :) I'll admit it was an extreme example, but the principle still holds: you can do anything with a finite number of outcomes any number of times and see runs of 'bad' luck (lots of heads in the coin example). 

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RNG doesnt mean a red mod has the same chance as a green mod. You are assuming a perfect 10/10 mod has the same chance to drop as a 1/10. That assumption is wrong. its weighted. 

Trendy doesnt release there numbers but its more like this:

You have a 10 side die if you roll a 1-10 its red quality, if its 11-15 its orange, if its 15-18 its yellow and if its 19-20 its green. 

Theres no magic trick to making green mods drop, its not time of day, or if you are using a vpn or if you put your pants on backwards.

Again just to drive the point home, lets say the probability of a perfect mod dropping is 1/100. that doesnt mean that if you get 100 items one is guaranteed to be perfect. Each drop is independent of the previous one. the quality it drops is weighted towards dropping lower quality.

So yes you could get 100 items and them all be red quality and it be totally RNG. 

Also all shards have the same chance of dropping, not sure if that was confirmed in discord or on forums but lawlta has said that before in the past.


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@Jaws_420 quote:

If i flipped a coin and got heads 75 times in a row, i would know it was biased. Heck, even 10 or more times. While the proability of heads remains constant - the odds of sequential results goes down exponentially after each flip. And that is a binary system.

Now, take into account that for any shard pack you open, you have a 1-in-"however many shards exist at that tier and below" chance at any 1 shard. I have on MULTIPLE occasions opened up the same shard 2-3 times in a row. The astronomical odds of that even being possible, let alone how many times i have seen it - strongly suggest that an "all equal" distribution does not exist. With the sample size i have now seen in over 9 months of playing, it firmly backs this theory. By now, with a big enough sample, things should level off. But they haven't. I used to see destruction shards - until crit was nerfed, and magically they seem to never drop now. Coincidence...im sure...

So to me, just blaming things on RNG is just giving up. In a true RNG environment, the above i mentioned should almost never occur. And yet night after night i see the same shards open up in packs - monk chi stomp anyone, and i have not seen a single destruction, DS, or DR shard in months. I'm not buying the RNG tale...

There are 23 shards in Chaos 1.  So each shard you open has a 1/23 chance to be a destruction. So you have a 4.34% chance each time you open a c1 shard for it to be a destruction. The chances are independent.  So that time you got 2 in a row, that was about a 1/500 chance. While that seems low (because it is) the chance of some player playing the game having that occur once a day given the playerbase size is pretty good.

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I'm talking about green quality relics if they are not specifically 10/10.

What I said about the 10/10 was that I played over 400h after the mods were released and only took 4 10/10 relics.

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Let's go to the opposite side of the example then - C5 has 39 some shards, so the probability of each drop is about  2.56%. The odds of opening up 2 in a row of the same shard would be = 1/39*1/39 = .0657%. 3 in a row = .00169%; that's roughly a 1 in 60,000 chance of happening. I can easily say that i have seen triples in pack openings multiple times, if not about once a month or so. Doubles happens almost every couple nights. I highly doubt i am the only one that is occurring with as well. I suspect that time may play some part, because when i quick open a lot shard packs in a row, that is when i tend to get the most sequential repeat results.

At these kinds of numbers, these kinds of events should be fairly rare. That has not been my experience. Even more so, if i did say 500 pack openings (at the C1 values mentioned above), i should see a specific shard drop around once. If my sample size was 10 times that amount, i would expect about 10 instances to occur, with some fluctuation for randomness. As the sample size gets bigger and bigger, outliers should all but disappear, and the statistical curve should appear keeping in alignment with the said distribution values. Around 1 million instances (and on to infinity), and the numbers should be fairly accurate by then if the prob% of success is accurate. So going back to C1 shards - if i have opened say a thousand C1 shards, a normal person should expect to see around 4.34% of 1000 = 44 destruction shards. Out of 100 times - around 4-5 shards, all give or take a small variance amount. I would guesstimate that i open at least 1-5 C1 shard packs every night, so let's call that an average of about 3. I play every night and even more on weekends In the last 2 months i have not seen 1 Destruction shard drop. So 2 months = 60 days *3 packs a night = 180 some opportunities (huge generalizations here mind you).At C1's 4.34%, i should have seen around 7-8 Destruction shards; I am at zero. For C3 - i should see (3.33%) about 6 of DS shards; i am at zero. C4 (2.86%), about 5 DR shards; i am at zero. This is even more frustrating given the obscenely high number of shards you need to gild these shards that appear on multiple heroes, requiring you to acquire around 40-70 of these shards to gild your whole team. I don't even have DR on every def i want it on yet, let alone think about gilding even 1 DR shard, let alone the other 6 or so.  Meanwhile,events that supposedly only happen once in 60,000 occurrences is happening with any kind of frequency.

So i guess i should just chalk it up to random coincidence that shards i desperately need to get stronger do not fall anywhere near their probability values, and shards i really don't want (i.e. like "whither bubble") show up almost nightly....? I have a very big issue with that. I can see RNG not going your way for a while, but over time and enough chances (extrapolating to infinity even) -  all results should level off to their respective probability values (if those values are indeed correct). I am not seeing anything even remotely close to those success rates in any of my shard openings, and the response of "must be RNG" has worn thin with me at this point. 

The math simply is not adding up. What i am being told, and what i see in the game are becoming two completely different things (in terms of shard drop rates), and the lack of drops of shards i need to progress is becoming infuriating. It should not takes weeks and weeks of farming C4 to get 1 DR shard. And if by some crazy chance this is all RNG, well quite frankly then that system sucks and something better is needed. I don't think equal drop rates should be in place when we don't need equal amounts of each shard. My Whither bubble example from earlier? If all of your DD2 playing, you will likely only ever need 11 of these shards (1 on hero, 10 to gild). DR - at least 55. the fact that they have equal drop rates is an issue alone, let alone the rates appear to not be working correctly. 

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@Jaws_420 quote:

...

 it comes down to either theres a conspiracy that trendy is targeting the shards you are farming for and reducing their drop rate but at the same time lying to you and telling you that all shards have equal drop rate

Or the game is designed to give all shards the same drop rate.

Anecdotes completely shape our perspective on this, just 2 weeks ago I wanted another gilded destruction so I bought 5k worth of shard packs, got 4 destruction, then farmed the other 7 over the next 2 days.

This is a classic example of clustering illusion. Confirmation bias is strong and its almost impossible to convince people otherwise once they make up their mind.


So my suggestion is you believe trendy when they say its RNG  because otherwise its just a conspiracy theory and then propose a better solution.

Ill start off: Separate hero shards and defense shards into two different shard pack drops. Guarantee  1 hero shard and 1 defense shard per map. This would keep their rng system but lower the pool and reduce the farm grind without shuffling shards around or removing them or spreading them through onslaught floors.

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Lol, i love how you wave a magic wand and claim only 2 possible scenarios can exist while minimizing my side instantly as a 'conspricy'. Yeah right. 

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@Jaws_420 quote:

Lol, i love how you wave a magic wand and claim only 2 possible scenarios can exist while minimizing my side instantly as a 'conspricy'. Yeah right. 

Im not sure what you are getting at. It boils down to either trendy told the truth and each shard has the same chance or they are lying.

By default the claim they are lying would be a conspiracy...

I was trying to move forward and talk about solutions to the diluted shard pool and tedious farming.

I have no interest in arguing for the sake to argue and I meant nothing negative toward you.

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