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If you read the random drop thread this is for you...


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Hi people,

quick video response to try and help people understand a little more.

Mods - please after a while just merge into the big thread... just made it seperate so people could see. Hope thats ok :)

[video=youtube_share;e02NPbrTr7c]http://youtu.be/e02NPbrTr7c[/video]

i love the start position... i look STONED :O

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Normally for videos I dont have to turn my laptops volume up to 50% AND turn the video volume all the way up... :)

But at least now maybe people will stop saying that you said you said this and that???

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hhaha i always have to :P

and hopefully yeah! its just easier to say than type... maybe now people understand :)

i hope your in a much better mood now classic you lil strop! :P

accent video number 2? :p

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I'm always happy.

I don't like the community being led to believe that a certain time you olay has an effect on what drops you get. Or anything other than it's completely random, which it is.

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Hey CC, you begged me to respond to your odds vs prob rant, if I remember you used please 3 times, I did. Are you not happy with my response, why the silence on your ridiculous failed example?

My question is, has anyone done the reverse of what everyone is doing? Run Maraggo 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples, THEN run Assult 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples for example. See if there was a correlation that way after finding the 'spike'. I think this is more accurate way, and I'll explain. When you do Assult first to determine the 'spike', it's human nature to have expectations if you believe, or hope, it to be true, you'll be looking for it. If you go into a home people say is haunted, and you believe it to true, every noise you hear you can't pin point will cement your belief.
I totally agree with Classic22, you're praying on the weak minded.

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Hey CC, you begged me to respond to your odds vs prob rant, if I remember you used please 3 times, I did. Are you not happy with my response, why the silence on your ridiculous failed example?

My question is, has anyone done the reverse of what everyone is doing? Run Maraggo 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples, THEN run Assult 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples for example. See if there was a correlation that way after finding the 'spike'. I think this is more accurate way, and I'll explain. When you do Assult first to determine the 'spike', it's human nature to have expectations if you believe, or hope, it to be true, you'll be looking for it. If you go into a home people say is haunted, and you believe it to true, every noise you hear you can't pin point will cement your belief.
I totally agree with Classic22, you're praying on the weak minded.


where was the failed example seriously? lol the ODDS of getting 10 head in a row is 1/1024... simple.

and it works either way... the difference is... you could ru morrago 10 times 400 minutes and then assault 10 times 10 minutes... this is why you do assault first... if you can find a spike within 10 minutes... use it to your advantage...

me and my friend have tested this today...

we did 14 runs overall on assault hit a spike around 8... played another 6 and then jumped to morrago
did morago and got 50 weapon.. did again and got 114 weapon... did again and 45...

we got a weapon over 100... so it worked in the same sense i have been saying all along... the only thing i cant say is the value that you will get... but at that time the predictor went from 23 up to 97 so we did the run...

im sorr

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I like this c&c guy... Even though I don't believe the same as he does... He believes in himself. A lot of names that would intimidate others have tried to rain on his parade. He does not care. He is not going to stop until he can answer his question himself. I am interested to see what his end conclusion is.

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where was the failed example seriously? lol the ODDS of getting 10 head in a row is 1/1024... simple.

and it works either way... the difference is... you could ru morrago 10 times 400 minutes and then assault 10 times 10 minutes... this is why you do assault first... if you can find a spike within 10 minutes... use it to your advantage...

me and my friend have tested this today...

we did 14 runs overall on assault hit a spike around 8... played another 6 and then jumped to morrago
did morago and got 50 weapon.. did again and got 114 weapon... did again and 45...

we got a weapon over 100... so it worked in the same sense i have been saying all along... the only thing i cant say is the value that you will get... but at that time the predictor went from 23 up to 97 so we did the run...

im sorr

so your answer is no, you haven't done it reverse. Yes I know numberically it shouldn't matter, but look at all the samples and their number of upgrades AFTER you have ~40 samples of each. Take the human expectation out of it.

and your heads and tails example was not what are the ODDS of 10 heads in a row or the 11th, if you can't recall, read YOUR question again. Your question inferred that it was almost impossible to get a heads agin on the 11th roll, or get another red on the 7th roll because the odds are so impossibe to get 8 reds in a row. is your mind refreshed now?

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so your answer is no, you haven't done it reverse. Yes I know numberically it shouldn't matter, but look at all the samples and their number of upgrades AFTER you have ~40 samples of each. Take the human expectation out of it.

and your heads and tails example was not what are the ODDS of 10 heads in a row or the 11th, if you can't recall, read YOUR question again. Your question inferred that it was almost impossible to get a heads agin on the 11th roll, or get another red on the 7th roll because the odds are so impossibe to get 8 reds in a row. is your mind refreshed now?


oh it did huh???


i wont be giving up on trying to muster a formula that can be used to "predict" a high drop zone.

what we mean by this is.

a time where the odds are entirely in your favour. the only way for people to understand this is simple.

sit down and flip a coin until you get 10 heads in a row. if you are all a fan of Derren Brown you will know this is a 1/1024 chance.

Now sit there and toss the coin... once you get to 4 heads in a row... just how much would you be willing to bet you hit a tails on the next?...


WHERE DOES IT SAY THAT IN MY COMMENT THERE??....

but check what you said?


Simple, yet so wrong. I'm suprised no one replied, even more dumbfounded CC wrote this. the odds of a tail or heads after 10, 14, or 100 straight heads, is STILL 1/2 .50. What's the chance of red or black if red came up 7 times in a row, still 1/2 .50
The scenerio you lay out is an independent variable situation.


the folloing part was right... you said probability

INDEPENDENT. doesn't matter if you flipped a coin a 100 times with them all coming up heads, the probility of the next flip being heads is STILL 1/2, or .50
this is basic STAT 101, this is also referred to as the Gambler's Fallacy. You're not due anything, even if you think you do in an independent variable. I don't know comp sci, but i know basic stat.



clearly someone is mixing up their own comment into something i didnt say.

you clearly see how you detailed ODDS in your first paragraph? uh oh... not my mistake..

so lets clear this up one more time for you... the probability of getting heads on EACH throw is 1/2

The odds of consecutively throwing heads 10 times in a row is 1/1024 and i dont see where i said 11 is impossible either....

so are you done now?

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Oh Jesus....I have a better chance extracting blood from a rock than getting through to you. "now sit there and toss a coin....once you get 4 heads in a row, just how much are you willing to bet a tails on the next one?" HHHHH or HHHHT , it's obvious you're not with me. what happened to your Roulette example you convienently left out? 6 red in a row, the odds are so small for another(7 reds in a row) so you bet on black, right? Wrong! I hope you're really not using this logic in your " experiment". and i already said we all know the ODDS of a 10 straight or 11 straight heads, that's not what you asked.

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Oh Jesus....I have a better chance extracting blood from a rock than getting through to you. "now sit there and toss a coin....once you get 4 heads in a row, just how much are you willing to bet a tails on the next one?" HHHHH or HHHHT , it's obvious you're not with me. what happened to your Roulette example you convienently left out? 6 red in a row, the odds are so small for another(7 reds in a row) so you bet on black, right? Wrong! I hope you're really not using this logic in your " experiment". and i already said we all know the ODDS of a 10 straight or 11 straight heads, that's not what you asked.


I believe you said...


Your question inferred that it was almost impossible to get a heads agin on the 11th roll, or get another red on the 7th roll because the odds are so impossibe to get 8 reds in a row. is your mind refreshed now?


so i answerd it for you...

the roulette part is the same...

Your problem is... you tried picking fault in something... got it wrong... and are now trying to find fault elsewhere...

why would i use logic of betting on red/black heads/tails... the have a probability each time as a result as 1/2

were using much larger scales... the forumla works on the basis of odds over a threshold ...

id just quit posting now... your trying to cause problems where there is no need to :)

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Hey CC, I really like you, you have so much conviction, so much passion. You can backtrack all you want, but if the readers go back to what the examples you initially asked, you're dead WRONG. you can use the odds vs probability red herring all you want. I'm done with this, and if you still don't understand the Gambleer's Fallacy, go ask a 16 year old who has taken Stat 101.

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I'm always happy.

I don't like the community being led to believe that a certain time you olay has an effect on what drops you get. Or anything other than it's completely random, which it is.


I love this dude^^

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Just curious as to why anyone would want to know when they were going to pull a great weapon? What would be the point of playing if you only had to farm 8x for 20 mins a night to have a complete set of great weapons. Most people IMO would have quit and moved on if there was no need or desire to get that next great "pull". Plus, I usually giveaway my lower end items that I farm either to my friends or on here. They might not be as fortunate as me to have the amount of playtime I get, or the ability to run certain maps. Giveaways would most likely cease altogether. Just my opinion though.

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Hey CC, you begged me to respond to your odds vs prob rant, if I remember you used please 3 times, I did. Are you not happy with my response, why the silence on your ridiculous failed example?

My question is, has anyone done the reverse of what everyone is doing? Run Maraggo 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples, THEN run Assult 10 times with 3 afk's = 40 samples for example. See if there was a correlation that way after finding the 'spike'. I think this is more accurate way, and I'll explain. When you do Assult first to determine the 'spike', it's human nature to have expectations if you believe, or hope, it to be true, you'll be looking for it. If you go into a home people say is haunted, and you believe it to true, every noise you hear you can't pin point will cement your belief.
I totally agree with Classic22, you're praying on the weak minded.


Like I have said from the beginning this is a very interesting idea that the drops can be predicted but the fact that there are no known facts about this drop system and so far no pattern has emerged to show even a remote chance that trendy uses anything other than a random number generator. Anyone who is already jumping to the conclusion that c&c is right just wants to believe it. Untill we have concrete facts on the generating system, max possible upgrades, and the possibility of time encoding we will never really be able to test this.

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Like I have said from the beginning this is a very interesting idea that the drops can be predicted but the fact that there are no known facts about this drop system and so far no pattern has emerged to show even a remote chance that trendy uses anything other than a random number generator. Anyone who is already jumping to the conclusion that c&c is right just wants to believe it. Untill we have concrete facts on the generating system, max possible upgrades, and the possibility of time encoding we will never really be able to test this.


It actually has nothing to do with drops but the Rewards that you get for completing challenges/some maps and even that is not predictable.

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